政客玩撲克 全民死光光 經濟學人文章搶讀 From the Economist

這是上個月的經濟學人文章摘錄。
原文非常長，僅取三分之二的文章來給同學閱讀。由於此篇涉及許多字彙與句法，老師特別將整句都翻譯出來，方便同學消化吸收。身為地球村的一員，不可不關心國際局勢，經濟學人的文章其實言簡意賅並不可怕，同學可以反覆閱讀，對於托福其他項目考試會有極大助益

From the Economist

The world economy 國際經濟

Sticky patch or meltdown?

How politicians could carelessly turn a temporary softening of the global recovery into something worse

錯誤的政策可使原本回溫的經濟惡化

June 16^th , 2011

SUMMER is at hand in the world’s big financial centres,國際的財經中心夏日將至 but the mood is hardly bright.但是氣氛並不明朗 Stock prices have been sliding for weeks 過去數周以來股價持續下挫in response to gloomy economic news金融訊息不樂觀. Factory output has slowed across the globe全球工廠產量趨緩. Consumers have become more cautious消費者日趨謹慎. In America virtually every statistic(這邊指的是每一個數據，所以用單數), from house prices to job growth, has weakened. 由房價至就業增長數據，幾乎每一個統計數字都走弱 There was some respite earlier this week本星期初惡況雖暫歇, but only because a few figures但只是因為—on American retail sales and Chinese factory production—were not as dire as feared. 美國的零售銷售數字與中國的工廠產值數字不如當初預估的那麼糟糕罷了

Globally, growth is at its weakest since the recovery began almost two years ago. Is today’s softness just a sticky patch字面義是「黏糊糊的一塊」，生動地比喻困難的處境；而meltdown(熔毀)明顯更糟糕。, or is the global recovery beginning to melt away?

The reasons for the lull停滯 趨緩 suggest it should be temporary. 幸好，作者認為增長停滯應該是暫時性 First, the tsunami in Japan日本海嘯 sent its GDP tumbling and disrupted supply chains, and thus industrial output, around the world, 日本海嘯令其國內生產總值暴跌，也擾亂了全球的供應鏈以及工業出產。particularly in April. But just as that slump衰退 shows up in the economic statistics, more forward-looking evidence points to a rebound. The summer production schedules of American car firms, for instance, indicate that the pace of annualised GDP growth there will accelerate加速 by at least a percentage point.

Second, demand was dented by a sudden surge in oil prices earlier this year需求量因為今年稍早攀高的油價而受阻. More income is being shifted from cash-strapped 手頭緊consumers in oil-importing countries進口石油國家 to producers who tend to sit on their treasures觀望不敢消費. Costlier fuel has knocked consumer confidence更高的油價重挫消費者信心, particularly in gas-guzzling America(guzzle原意是牛飲,此指需求量特高). And there is still an uncomfortable possibility that further instability in the Arab world will send prices soaring again(消費者擔心阿拉伯國家的動盪不安，可能導致油價再度攀高). Nonetheless(這個字跟but一樣，用了它就代表前後文要表達的意思不同), at least for now, the pressure is waning壓力正在持續消退. America’s average petrol price, 油價(英國人用petrol美國人用gas)though still 21% higher than at the beginning of the year, has started to fall. That should boost shoppers’ morale (and their spending). 美國的油價今年以來已經漲了21%不過最近已經有下跌趨勢，油價下跌可望刺激消費者採購欲望，進而刺激經濟成長

Third, many emerging economies 新興經濟體have tightened monetary policy in response to high inflation.許多新興經濟體在貨幣政策上採取緊縮策略，為了因應高通膨 China’s consumer-price inflation accelerated to 5.5% in the year to May. 中國今年前五個月的通膨升至5.5%India’s wholesale prices leapt by 9.1%. 印度的貨品批發價格也飆高了9.1個百分點Slower growth is, in part, a welcome sign that their central banks have taken action, and that those measures are beginning to work. 經濟的緩步回升，代表著各國的中央銀行有採取動作，且政策開始出現成效There is no evidence that they have gone too far, even in China, where the worries about bringing the economy down with a bump are loudest.證據顯示，各國當局的金融對策沒有過當，即便是在中國，先前有疑慮，認為高通膨與貨幣緊縮政策可能重挫經濟成長。 The bigger risk is that nervousness about a weakening world economy leads to a premature pause in the tightening. With monetary conditions still extraordinarily loose, such a loss of resolve would make higher inflation and an eventual crash far more likely. 這段在說明，全球經濟的最大風險與隱憂在於，許多國家看衰全球經濟，因此導致過當或是過早實施貨幣的緊縮政策，如果策略方向錯誤，會造成更嚴重的通膨，最後甚至導致經濟整個崩盤。

Politicians playing poker 政客玩撲克 全民死光光
為什麼要這樣說呢？因為其實撲克是一種不公平的賭博遊戲，用撲克牌來玩，裡面有很多打嘴砲成分。因此諷刺政客玩撲克亂制定策略，人民成為輸家。 撲克的玩法並不難，不過有高達九成的人都是輸家。

This dangerous political brinkmanship(冒險把危急局勢推到頂點的)邊緣政策

could have a damaging effect by creating uncertainty. Companies are currently sitting on piles of cash because they are wondering how strong economic growth will be. 現階段還是有很多賺錢的公司正在觀望，想判斷目前經濟成長的狀況如何Politics gives them more reason to sit on their hands rather than investing and hiring immediately, providing a boost the world economy sorely needs.當局的錯誤政策與訊息，會讓這些口袋夠深的企業，寧可觀望也不願意投資與擴張(為了避開風險)如此一來，經濟復甦之日遙遙無期。

There is a real risk that the politicians’ pig-headedness could lead to disaster.白痴政客所制定的策略可能引發災難 The odds of a catastrophe發生災難的可能性—harsh fiscal tightening in America美國政府的財務緊縮, or a crash in the euro zone歐元崩盤—may not be high雖然機率不高, but neither are they negligible.可是不容忽視 Though economic logic經濟邏輯 suggests that the world economy is just going through a sticky patch, squabbling politicians could all too easily turn it into a meltdown. 最後一句話的意思是，雖說按照經濟學的邏輯來看，目前的停滯與衰退似乎只是一個暫時的難關，但是爭擾不休的政客很有可能因為豬頭政策，把一個暫時性的蕭條變成一個meltdown悲劇。