樂透國度！2013投胎在哪個國家最幸福？快來看台灣的世界排名

From the Economist

The lottery of life人生大樂透

Where to be born in 2013

Nov 21st 2012 | from The World In 2013 print edition

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這一期台灣的樂透彩又槓龜了。這次沒中頭彩的人別難過，因為根據經濟學人雜誌的報導，台灣在全球八十個國家的幸福大樂透國度評比裡面，竟然排名第14，比美國、德國、比利時與南韓甚至中國的名次都要前面很多。

看到這篇文章對照之前經濟學人罵馬總統的文章，真是有點錯亂說...所以大家別喪志，雖說我們的總統與內閣在外媒眼中既笨拙又無能，但這就是台灣厲害的地方，因為我們已經不景氣到這種地步，還能成為亞洲排名第三的幸福樂透投胎國？(亞洲排名第一國家是新加坡，再來是香港，接著是台灣。)

大家要知道，經濟學人智庫做這些調查，是把一個國家很多的元素都考慮在內，如國民健康、所得、治安、政治與經濟局勢與未來發展等等都當成評分重點。更重要的是，因為標題是明年投胎在哪個國家最幸福？所以這項指標有其未來性，這個調查是假設明年小孩出生，以二十年後這個國家的發展來評估。從這個角度來看，台灣的狀況很不賴。二十年後，我如果還活著，將是一個六十三歲的老婦。明年出生的孩子，可能要繳交很重的稅金來養我跟一群資深公民senior citizens我感恩大家，大家辛苦了。

全文解析

股神巴菲特曾將自己的成功歸功於天時與地利。因為他恰巧出生在美國的三零年代，歷經了蕭條之後的復甦，當時的美國逐漸邁向興盛。生要逢時，才有可能變成富可敵國的強人。不過出生的時間與地點只是成功方程式的其中一兩個環節。自身的努力與想法也很重要。25年前，如果想要投胎，美國無疑是一個首選寶地。可是現在呢？明年要投胎的人，要生在哪個國家最幸福？答案是瑞士與澳洲。

不過台灣也不賴，我們的排名很前面，分數的表現比很多大經濟體還要出色。

Warren Buffett, probably the world’s most successful investor, has said that anything good that happened to him could be traced back to the fact that he was born in the right country, the United States, at the right time (1930). A quarter of a century ago, when The World in 1988 light-heartedly ranked 50 countries according to where would be the best place to be born in 1988, America indeed came top. But which country will be the best for a baby born in 2013?

To answer this, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)經濟學人智庫, a sister company of The Economist, has this time turned deadly serious. It earnestly attempts to measure which country will provide the best opportunities for a healthy, safe and prosperous life in the years ahead. 以上這是經濟學人智庫評估國家優勢的幾個重點
 

生活品質指數的衡量有點複雜，當然，國家的經濟情況好，人民富有確實有幫助，但錢不是一切。人民的幸福感受還跟治安好不好，對於政府的信任多不多，以及家庭的完整與健康有關。經濟學人為每個國家的十一個指標做出綜合評量。裡面還包含地理位置、人口結構與文化特質。

Its quality-of-life index生活品質指數 links the results of subjective life-satisfaction surveys—how happy people say they are—to objective determinants of the quality of life across countries. Being rich helps more than anything else, but it is not all that counts; things like crime, trust in public institutions and the health of family life matter too. In all, the index takes 11 statistically significant indicators into account. They are a mixed bunch: some are fixed factors, such as geography; others change only very slowly over time (demography, many social and cultural characteristics); and some factors depend on policies and the state of the world economy.

下面這一段說明了這項調查所具備的前瞻性。因為既然是明年才投胎，那麼就要算一算二十年後每個國家的狀態。當然現在要預估二十年後的狀況，不可能完全精準，落差確實有。(如二十年後的國民所得這類的)但是這個評量儘量做到客觀，蒐集的資料與數據也力求完整。

A forward-looking前瞻性 element comes into play, too. Although many of the drivers of the quality of life are slow-changin改變較緩慢的, for this rankin排名 some variables變數, such as income per head, need to be forecast. We use the EIU’s economic forecasts to 2030, which is roughly when children born in 2013 will reach adulthood.長大成人

下一段說明儘管目前全球經濟蕭條，失業率增加，全球產值衰退，但是請別忘了我們有的優勢。平均來說，全球人民的薪水達到新高，人類的壽命顯著增長，很多國家正朝向民主邁進，北非與中東尤其明顯。歐元區雖然危機尚未解除，但是平均而言，人類的生活水平確實有長足提升。

Despite the global economic crisis全球經濟危機, times have in certain respects never been so good. Output growth rates產值成長率 have been declining across the world, but income levels are at or near historic highs史上最高. Life expectancy 壽命continues to increase steadily and political freedoms have spread across the globe, most recently in North Africa and the Middle East. In other ways, however, the crisis has left a deep imprint重挫了—in the euro zone歐元區, but also elsewhere—particularly on unemployment and personal security. In doing so, it has eroded侵蝕了 both family and community life.

What does all this, and likely developments in the years to come, mean for where a baby might be luckiest to be born in 2013? After crunching壓碎(搜集整理) its numbers, the EIU has Switzerland comfortably in the top spot, with Australia second.調查結果，最幸福的投胎樂透國家就是瑞士，穩坐冠軍寶座，澳洲則排名第二。
 

這項調查也顯示，小型經濟體名列前茅，荷蘭的表現更是亮眼。北歐國家的排名也不錯。不過氣候嚴峻的北國表現都比氣候宜人的南歐各國(如希臘、葡萄牙與西班牙)來得好。歐洲幾個最大的經濟體如德國、法國與英國，則表現不佳。

Small economies小型經濟體 dominate the top ten. Half of these are European, but only one, the Netherlands, is from the euro zone. The Nordic countries 北歐國家shine, whereas the crisis-ridden south of Europe危機四伏的南歐各國 (Greece, Portugal and Spain) lags behind落後 despite the advantage of a favourable climate. The largest European economies (Germany, France and Britain) do not do particularly well.

再來看美國，明年出生在美國的嬰兒，將承接天文數字的債務。金磚四國(巴西、俄羅斯、印度與中國)這次的排名也不好。不過最慘的是投胎在奈及利亞，因為這個國家是排名最後的一國。

America, where babies will inherit繼承the large debts of the boomer generation嬰兒潮世代(就是現在四十至六十歲的人所留下來的債務), languishes有氣無力的 back in 16th place. Despite their economic dynamism經濟活力, none of the BRIC countries 金磚四國(Brazil, Russia, India and China) scores impressively. Among the 80 countries covered, Nigeria奈吉利亞 comes last: it is the worst place for a baby to enter the world in 2013.

Boring is best
越沉悶越富強

最後經濟學人雜誌自認這項調查或許會引發一些爭議，因為這些研究的漏洞可能比一塊瑞士起司上的洞洞還要多。排名第一的國家瑞士就是一個好例子。這個國家是個無趣的國家，文化深度與生活的豐富度遠不及其他各國。文章引述一個很有趣的電影對白，說的還真好。內容大意是，The Third Man影片中，有一個主角說過一句很有名的話，大意是，過去三十年來，義大利這個國家歷經了戰爭、恐慌與十四世紀博吉亞家族的殘酷謀殺，但是那段時期也是文藝復興，美學與創意百家爭鳴的時代，米開朗基羅與達文西成就了驚世的藝術作品，但是瑞士一路在安逸的政治與經濟環境中走過五個世紀，除了製作了咕咕鐘之外，對世人而言，完全沒有任何其他的記憶亮點。

Quibblers爭議 will, of course, find more holes in all this than there are in a chunk of Swiss cheese一塊瑞士起司. In the film “The Third Man”, Orson Welles’s character, the rogue Harry Lime, famously says that Italy for 30 years had war, terror and murder under the Borgias十四世紀在義大利惡名昭彰的博吉亞家族 but in that time produced Michelangelo米開朗基羅, Leonardo da Vinci達文西 and the Renaissance文藝復興; Switzerland had 500 years of peace and democracy—and produced the cuckoo clock咕咕鐘.

from The World In 2013 print edition